Part of: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

This Polymarket market asks whether S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) will record a regular-hours 1-minute candle low of $700 or below at any point during May 2026. It resolves after the May trading period, with the official resolution date listed as June 1, 2026, and only regular market hours prices count. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,402 in smart money activity on this market, including 1 signal and a recent alert that an 83% winner flipped Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,402.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Stocks, Equities, SPY, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

83% winner flips Yes

A high-volume, 83% lifetime winner is flipping out of a No position and effectively buying Yes in a thin SPY level market while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor has won 83% of 150 resolved bets and is up $13.7K lifetime.
  • The trade effectively buys Yes at 26¢ after closing a larger No position, signaling a change in view.
  • Their $1.4K trade was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, so it stands out in a thin order book.

$1,402 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0x56ab...784e Yes, $2,095 (21% win rate)
  2. 0x5226...8554 No, $1,898 (76% win rate)
  3. 0x4a5d...17ad No, $887 (58% win rate)
  4. 0x9138...0690 Yes, $853
  5. 0xb2db...2f89 Yes, $764
  6. 0x6f2a...de7d Yes, $550
  7. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $519
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $447 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x45b2...cbc1 No, $250 (15% win rate)
  10. 0x743d...f77e No, $212

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

No Iran peace deal soon

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

SPY stays below $740

Covers 2 related markets

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

20dWhat will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?$1,402 tracked1 signalFinanceMonthlyHit PriceHide From NewFinance UpdownPyth FinanceStocksEquitiesSPYRewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50
Yes
27¢
No
74¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Price History — “No
77¢
53¢
30¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

5h ago

$1,402 on Yes at 26¢

26¢27¢1¢

Related Theses