Part of: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
This prediction market asks whether SpaceX will have a market capitalization greater than $2.0 trillion at the closing price on its first day of public trading. It resolves after SpaceX’s IPO day based on closing market cap, or to “No IPO before 2028” if SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $2,204 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,204.
Categories: Tech, IPO, Finance, Elon Musk, Big Tech, Science, IPOs, Space, SpaceX, Climate & Science
Notable Trades
90% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and $262k profit bought Yes on the SpaceX IPO market-cap threshold.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $262k lifetime.
- They have traded 42 markets across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 67¢ implies they still see upside despite the market already favoring Yes.
$2,204 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $25,861
- 0x8c44...fcd4 — Yes, $14,205 (69% win rate)
- 0x87d3...0e8b — No, $12,532 (24% win rate)
- 0xdd2f...7e70 — Yes, $12,088
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $6,647 (55% win rate)
- 0x1bbc...a861 — Yes, $6,313
- 0x2061...8ec9 — No, $5,503 (24% win rate)
- 0xa3a3...c2f9 — Yes, $4,497 (89% win rate)
- 0x4818...bf0b — No, $3,449 (52% win rate)
- 0x76cf...9452 — Yes, $3,289 (90% win rate)
Related Theses
LNG Esports sweep LGD
Covers 2 related markets
Weibo Gaming beats JD Gaming
Covers 1 related market
EDG then ThunderTalk split
Covers 2 related markets
SpaceX IPO tops $2T
Covers 1 related market
Ultra Prime beats Oh My God
Covers 1 related market
Bilibili beats Top Esports
Covers 1 related market
Team WE beats Ninjas
Covers 1 related market
Newsom wins 2028 nomination
Covers 1 related market
KT Rolster wins Game 1
Covers 1 related market
JD Gaming takes Game 1
Covers 1 related market
