Part of: Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether SpaceX’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $3.0 trillion by June 30, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s reported NPM Price. It resolves Yes if the NPM Price hits the threshold on any eligible trading date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $5,866 in smart money activity, with recent sharp and high-win-rate wallets buying No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,859.

Categories: Finance, Privates

Notable Trades

85% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5.9k of No on a thin SpaceX valuation market, pushing/confirming odds up to 88%.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $28.6k lifetime.
  • They put $5.9k on No, a large bet for a market with under $4k in 24h volume.
  • The position was built aggressively from 63–64¢ up to 88¢, showing strong conviction.

$5,866 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp wallet buying No

Sharp 85%-win wallet is buying No on a thin SpaceX valuation market and scaling a related bearish thesis across markets.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $28.7k lifetime.
  • They put $4.2k into No across related SpaceX valuation markets, a large move versus the market's $3.8k daily volume.
  • Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see the $3T valuation threshold as very unlikely by June 2026.

$4,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

85% winner betting No

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 85% win rate over 100 resolved bets and is buying No on a related SpaceX valuation market set.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $28.7K lifetime.
  • They put $5.9K across 2 related SpaceX valuation markets, showing a consistent No thesis.
  • Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence bet that SpaceX will not reach a $3T valuation by June 2026.

$2,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1543...baaf Yes, $7,379 (61% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $7,100 (47% win rate)
  3. 0xc443...bbdb No, $3,141 (85% win rate)
  4. 0x8231...652b Yes, $1,289
  5. 0x8df7...36c4 Yes, $570 (73% win rate)
  6. 0xa7f5...b853 Yes, $464
  7. 0xe929...ef1a Yes, $425
  8. 0xd59c...cc11 Yes, $260
  9. 0x7e78...3945 Yes, $250
  10. 0x50f4...5e6a No, $200

Related Theses

Anthropic stays below $2T

Covers 2 related markets

SpaceX stays below $2.5T

Covers 2 related markets

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

39dWill SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?$12,859 tracked3 signalsFinancePrivates
Yes
12¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
94¢
88¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

18h ago

$5,866 on No at 88¢

88¢89¢1¢

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

21h ago

$4,229 on No at 88¢

88¢89¢1¢

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

22h ago

$2,764 on No at 88¢

88¢89¢1¢

Related Theses