Part of: Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether SpaceX’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $1.35 trillion by June 30, 2026, based on the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market. It resolves Yes if any eligible NPM trading-day valuation during the period hits that threshold; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,597 in smart money activity on this market, with a recent alert noting a thin-market NO buyer.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,597.

Categories: Finance, Privates

Notable Trades

Thin-market NO buyer

A moderately experienced positive-P&L wallet made a large NO bet that dwarfs recent volume in a very thin SpaceX valuation market.

  • This bet is over 4x the market’s last-day volume, a strong conviction move in a very quiet market.
  • The wallet has 206 resolved bets and is up about $12.5K lifetime, though its edge is not elite.
  • Entry at 89¢ means the bettor is backing a high-confidence NO on SpaceX reaching a $1.35T valuation by June 30.

$1,597 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x936e...473f No, $2,044 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x8df7...36c4 Yes, $1,054 (72% win rate)
  3. 0x4337...8882 Yes, $333 (75% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $200 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x54db...0174 Yes, $129 (44% win rate)
  6. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $100
  7. 0xb777...3ff9 Yes, $100
  8. 0xeae5...0720 Yes, $100 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x9a10...e840 Yes, $60
  10. 0x7fa1...deeb No, $29

Related Theses

Australia wins Eurovision 2026

Covers 2 related markets

SpaceX IPO valuation under $2.4T

Covers 2 related markets

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?

41dWill SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?$1,597 tracked1 signalFinancePrivates
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
93¢
67¢
40¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?

1d ago

$1,597 on No at 89¢

89¢90¢1¢

Related Theses