Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This Polymarket market asks whether Spain will reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. PolySpotter tracks $11,076 in smart-money activity on this market, with recent alerts showing sharp traders taking both Yes and No positions. The market resolves Yes if Spain reaches the quarterfinals, or No if Spain is mathematically eliminated before that stage.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,958.
Categories: Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Sports, world cup, FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures, Team Props
Notable Trades
Profitable new whale adding Yes
A 5-day-old repeat whale with early profits is adding $11k to Spain Yes amid a major volume spike and rising odds.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already been flagged 10 times and is up $9.8k across early positions.
- They bought $11.1k of Yes, including a fresh $6.9k add at 66¢ after an earlier 36¢ entry.
- Market activity is surging, with volume over 300x normal and Spain’s odds up 7.5 points today.
$11,076 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
99% winner buys No
Elite sharp wallet with a 67/68 resolved record is buying Spain No at 38%, making the trader track record the main signal despite modest size.
- This bettor has won 67 of 68 resolved trades and is up about $192K lifetime.
- They bought Spain No at 38¢, against a market currently pricing No near 40¢.
- The wallet’s past wins came at average odds around 55%, suggesting a strong history of finding mispriced bets.
$2,396 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Elite 80% sports sharp
Surfacing because this is a highly proven sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and nearly $797k lifetime profit, effectively buying Spain Yes via a No sale.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $797k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 157 events with over $626k in tracked flow.
- Selling No at 42¢ is equivalent to buying Spain Yes at 58¢.
$1,133 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable sharp fading favorite
Sharp-wallet override: an 80% winning, profitable bettor is fading Spain despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $12.3K lifetime.
- They are taking the other side of Spain at an effective 45¢ No entry.
- The $4.4K trade was large versus recent activity, about three-quarters of the market’s 24h volume.
$4,353 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xe8c2...3048 — Outcome 24145251, $25,083 (91% win rate)
- 0x4aef...9337 — Outcome 24145251, $23,998 (71% win rate)
- 0xd604...cb5f — Outcome 24145251, $12,989 (69% win rate)
- 0x6a32...0086 — Outcome 24145251, $8,062 (83% win rate)
- 0x336b...1233 — Outcome 24145251, $8,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — Outcome 24145251, $5,435 (55% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Outcome 24145251, $3,355 (60% win rate)
- 0x6db9...4ab5 — Outcome 24145251, $2,790 (83% win rate)
- 0x15a6...bf5d — Outcome 24145251, $2,216 (47% win rate)
- 0xaf7a...0c40 — Outcome 24145251, $2,112 (100% win rate)