Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,654.

Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures

Notable Trades

Elite cross-market sharp

Proven sharp wallet with an 81% long-run win rate and $613k lifetime profit bought Spain Yes at 89¢ as part of a broader cross-market World Cup positioning pattern.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $613k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.3M deployed across 852 markets.
Bought Spain Yes at 89¢ and the market has already moved to 95¢.

$1,065 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

New profitable World Cup bettor

A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is adding another $3k to a broader World Cup positioning thesis.

This new wallet has already put $27.8k into flagged bets and is up $4.7k on 2 resolved trades.
The bettor is positioning across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader sports thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with a suggested ceiling of 95¢.

$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

New whale scaling into YES

A 2-day-old wallet with repeated large World Cup bets bought $7.1k of Spain Yes, including adding at 88¢ after an earlier 71¢ fill moved sharply.

This 2-day-old wallet has already made $17.6k in flagged bets and is up $3.8k early.
They bought $5k at 71¢ before the market jumped to 86¢, then added another $2.1k at 88¢.
The $7.1k position is large for this market, equal to roughly 70% of daily volume.

$7,633 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

8-wallet funded cluster

An 8-wallet funded cluster with repeat prior activity is buying Spain Yes, and this wallet has a small but perfect resolved record.

Eight wallets funded by the same address are backing this side, with the cluster seen in prior scans.
This wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets and is up $1,344 on $5,729 invested.
Entry at 87¢ is a high-probability bet, but still offers upside if Spain is priced closer to certain.

$1,766 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New profitable World Cup bettor

A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is adding another $3k to a broader World Cup positioning thesis.

This new wallet has already put $27.8k into flagged bets and is up $4.7k on 2 resolved trades.
The bettor is positioning across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader sports thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with a suggested ceiling of 95¢.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Sharp bettor fading Yes

A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor is reducing Spain Yes exposure across a broader World Cup thesis, making the equivalent No side worth tracking despite this being a position exit.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $62.6K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 226 events and $660K total traded.
This sell flips to buying No at 22¢, suggesting they see Spain’s advancement odds as too high.

$7,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 39%

New whale scaling into YES

A 2-day-old wallet with repeated large World Cup bets bought $7.1k of Spain Yes, including adding at 88¢ after an earlier 71¢ fill moved sharply.

This 2-day-old wallet has already made $17.6k in flagged bets and is up $3.8k early.
They bought $5k at 71¢ before the market jumped to 86¢, then added another $2.1k at 88¢.
The $7.1k position is large for this market, equal to roughly 70% of daily volume.

$7,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

92% winner funded cluster

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate is buying Spain Yes, backed by a 16-wallet funded cluster on related World Cup markets.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $60K lifetime.
A 16-wallet funded cluster has put $6.8K into related World Cup positions.
They are buying at 84¢, signaling confidence Spain reaches the Round of 16 despite already-high odds.

$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Contrarian cross-market bettor

Contrarian No bet from a high-win-rate cross-market trader, though the wallet's lifetime P&L is negative and the market has moved against the entry.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades, but is slightly down overall, so the track record is mixed.
They put $3.6K against Spain advancing, a large share of recent volume in a relatively quiet market.
The same wallet has been active across 4 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader tournament thesis.

$3,627 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%