Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,654.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Elite cross-market sharp
Proven sharp wallet with an 81% long-run win rate and $613k lifetime profit bought Spain Yes at 89¢ as part of a broader cross-market World Cup positioning pattern.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $613k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.3M deployed across 852 markets.
- Bought Spain Yes at 89¢ and the market has already moved to 95¢.
$1,065 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
New profitable World Cup bettor
A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is adding another $3k to a broader World Cup positioning thesis.
- This new wallet has already put $27.8k into flagged bets and is up $4.7k on 2 resolved trades.
- The bettor is positioning across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader sports thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with a suggested ceiling of 95¢.
$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
New whale scaling into YES
A 2-day-old wallet with repeated large World Cup bets bought $7.1k of Spain Yes, including adding at 88¢ after an earlier 71¢ fill moved sharply.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made $17.6k in flagged bets and is up $3.8k early.
- They bought $5k at 71¢ before the market jumped to 86¢, then added another $2.1k at 88¢.
- The $7.1k position is large for this market, equal to roughly 70% of daily volume.
$7,633 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
8-wallet funded cluster
An 8-wallet funded cluster with repeat prior activity is buying Spain Yes, and this wallet has a small but perfect resolved record.
- Eight wallets funded by the same address are backing this side, with the cluster seen in prior scans.
- This wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets and is up $1,344 on $5,729 invested.
- Entry at 87¢ is a high-probability bet, but still offers upside if Spain is priced closer to certain.
$1,766 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New profitable World Cup bettor
A 3-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is adding another $3k to a broader World Cup positioning thesis.
- This new wallet has already put $27.8k into flagged bets and is up $4.7k on 2 resolved trades.
- The bettor is positioning across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader sports thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with a suggested ceiling of 95¢.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp bettor fading Yes
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor is reducing Spain Yes exposure across a broader World Cup thesis, making the equivalent No side worth tracking despite this being a position exit.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $62.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 226 events and $660K total traded.
- This sell flips to buying No at 22¢, suggesting they see Spain’s advancement odds as too high.
$7,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
New whale scaling into YES
A 2-day-old wallet with repeated large World Cup bets bought $7.1k of Spain Yes, including adding at 88¢ after an earlier 71¢ fill moved sharply.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made $17.6k in flagged bets and is up $3.8k early.
- They bought $5k at 71¢ before the market jumped to 86¢, then added another $2.1k at 88¢.
- The $7.1k position is large for this market, equal to roughly 70% of daily volume.
$7,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% winner funded cluster
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate is buying Spain Yes, backed by a 16-wallet funded cluster on related World Cup markets.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $60K lifetime.
- A 16-wallet funded cluster has put $6.8K into related World Cup positions.
- They are buying at 84¢, signaling confidence Spain reaches the Round of 16 despite already-high odds.
$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Contrarian cross-market bettor
Contrarian No bet from a high-win-rate cross-market trader, though the wallet's lifetime P&L is negative and the market has moved against the entry.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades, but is slightly down overall, so the track record is mixed.
- They put $3.6K against Spain advancing, a large share of recent volume in a relatively quiet market.
- The same wallet has been active across 4 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader tournament thesis.
$3,627 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x4aef...9337 — Outcome 85681862, $10,685 (71% win rate)
- 0xe8c2...3048 — Outcome 85681862, $10,663 (91% win rate)
- 0x5fd8...ce32 — Outcome 85681862, $9,488 (89% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — Outcome 85681862, $6,779 (58% win rate)
- 0x478f...f5d9 — Outcome 85681862, $2,775 (67% win rate)
- 0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 85681862, $2,759 (74% win rate)
- 0x825a...f465 — Outcome 85681862, $2,009
- 0x8ad8...41b6 — Outcome 85681862, $2,000
- 0x0c01...797d — Outcome 85681862, $1,075
- 0xbd33...eee4 — Outcome 85681862, $859
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