Part of: Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie released in 2026. It resolves using final opening-weekend figures from The Numbers by December 31, 2026; current odds were not included in the provided market data.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,466.

Categories: Movies, Culture, The Odyssey

Notable Trades

Whale scales into Spider-Man Yes

A trader with an established $5,647 Yes position added $2,599 at 46¢ in a relatively quiet market, helping drive a sharp upward repricing despite lacking a strong win-rate edge.

  • The wallet added $2,599 to an existing $5,647 Yes position at 46¢, showing increased conviction.
  • Yes has risen 22% over the past week and the trade coincided with a 34-point breakout beyond the recorded historical range.
  • The bettor is profitable overall, up $136,547 across 550 resolved bets, but its 53% win rate is not a standout edge.

$2,867 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Whale scales into Spider-Man Yes

A trader with an established $5,647 Yes position added $2,599 at 46¢ in a relatively quiet market, helping drive a sharp upward repricing despite lacking a strong win-rate edge.

  • The wallet added $2,599 to an existing $5,647 Yes position at 46¢, showing increased conviction.
  • Yes has risen 22% over the past week and the trade coincided with a 34-point breakout beyond the recorded historical range.
  • The bettor is profitable overall, up $136,547 across 550 resolved bets, but its 53% win rate is not a standout edge.

$2,599 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $66,887
  2. 0x9d84...1344 Yes, $16,382 (43% win rate)
  3. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $15,449 (41% win rate)
  4. 0x1283...2a9d Yes, $4,642 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x6fd4...4fa0 Yes, $3,582 (76% win rate)
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $2,945 (70% win rate)
  7. 0xb7de...b802 Yes, $2,818
  8. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $2,803 (67% win rate)
  9. 0x0380...073d Yes, $1,774 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xd416...d9e2 No, $1,724 (56% win rate)

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Michael underperforms second weekend

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Masters opens $30-33M or above $36M

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The Odyssey lands 86–92m

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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

109dWhich movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?$5,466 tracked2 signalsMoviesCultureThe Odyssey
Yes
47¢
No
54¢

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “No
57¢
50¢
43¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

42d ago

$2,867 on Yes at 46¢

46¢47¢1¢

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

43d ago

$2,599 on Yes at 46¢

46¢47¢1¢

Related Theses