Part of: Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie released in 2026. It resolves using final opening-weekend figures from The Numbers by December 31, 2026; current odds were not included in the provided market data.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,404.

Categories: The Odyssey, Movies, Culture, Spider-Man

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A highly profitable, frequently active cross-market trader added nearly $5,000 to an existing Yes position in a quiet market, with the price trending upward.

  • This bettor has won 47 of 50 resolved bets and is up about $145,000 lifetime.
  • They added nearly $5,000 to an existing Yes position while 24-hour market volume was only $186.
  • The Yes price has risen about 11.5% over the past week; the new buys averaged roughly 58¢.

$4,938 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Whale scales into Spider-Man Yes

A trader with an established $5,647 Yes position added $2,599 at 46¢ in a relatively quiet market, helping drive a sharp upward repricing despite lacking a strong win-rate edge.

  • The wallet added $2,599 to an existing $5,647 Yes position at 46¢, showing increased conviction.
  • Yes has risen 22% over the past week and the trade coincided with a 34-point breakout beyond the recorded historical range.
  • The bettor is profitable overall, up $136,547 across 550 resolved bets, but its 53% win rate is not a standout edge.

$2,867 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

Whale scales into Spider-Man Yes

A trader with an established $5,647 Yes position added $2,599 at 46¢ in a relatively quiet market, helping drive a sharp upward repricing despite lacking a strong win-rate edge.

  • The wallet added $2,599 to an existing $5,647 Yes position at 46¢, showing increased conviction.
  • Yes has risen 22% over the past week and the trade coincided with a 34-point breakout beyond the recorded historical range.
  • The bettor is profitable overall, up $136,547 across 550 resolved bets, but its 53% win rate is not a standout edge.

$2,599 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

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Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?$10,404 tracked3 signalsThe OdysseyMoviesCultureSpider-Man
Yes
46¢
No
55¢

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “No”
65¢
57¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

2026-09-30 09:39 UTC

$4,938 on Yes at 58¢

58¢→46¢↓12¢

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

2026-08-01 04:05 UTC

$2,867 on Yes at 46¢

46¢→46¢

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

2026-07-30 20:22 UTC

$2,599 on Yes at 46¢

46¢→46¢

Related Theses