Part of: Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,716.

Categories: Privates, Finance, Stripe, Payments, Tech, Big Tech

Notable Trades

Thin-market No conviction

A single bettor made a large No buy that dwarfs normal activity in a very thin, niche Stripe valuation market.

  • This $1.7K No buy was about 47x the market’s entire 24h volume.
  • The market is very quiet, with only $37 traded in 24h and a thin book, so this is a high-conviction move.
  • Entry at 68¢ is a clear bet that Stripe stays below a $170B private-market valuation by the deadline.

$1,716 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa58d...b9b8 Outcome 33921176, $1,030 (40% win rate)
  2. 0x52fd...2ab7 Outcome 33921176, $200
  3. 0xa371...5db6 Outcome 33921176, $52 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x9a94...d5f9 Outcome 33921176, $50
  5. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 33921176, $29
  6. 0x51f2...38ef Outcome 33921176, $24
  7. 0x6e81...864b Outcome 33921176, $19
  8. 0x5f0e...7397 Outcome 33921176, $18 (68% win rate)
  9. 0x9f3e...5bc9 Outcome 33921176, $14
  10. 0xba17...92b4 Outcome 33921176, $10

Related Theses

Tread FDV stays below $40M

Covers 4 related markets

Durable goods outside zero to six

Covers 3 related markets

JNE certifies in July

Covers 2 related markets

Starships will dock by 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?

ResolvedWill Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?$1,716 tracked1 signalPrivatesFinanceStripePaymentsTechBig Tech

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Notable Trades

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?

62d ago

$1,716 on No at 68¢

Related Theses