20 wallets bought $83k of Yes, pushing the draw price up about 60 percentage points in one day. Several serial cross-market bettors are involved, including wallets with 69%–81% historical win rates across large event portfolios. This followed a 28x volume spike, suggesting the move is broader than one isolated whale.

Part of: Türkiye vs. United States

Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $185,936.

Categories: Games, FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Sports

Notable Trades

18-wallet sharp No sweep

A large 18-wallet cluster, including several profitable serial sports/event traders, aggressively bought No before the market moved to 100%.

18 wallets put $51.8K on No in the same window, pushing No up 49 percentage points.
Several proven traders joined the move, including one bettor with 994 wins in 1,002 resolved bets and positive lifetime profit.
No is already at 100%, so this is mainly a strong signal to study rather than a fresh entry.

$51,846 on No

Nine-wallet No cluster

A high-score cluster of 9 wallets put $45k on No, supported by serial cross-market bettors and a major pre-event volume spike, though the market has also seen heavy opposing flow.

Nine wallets put $45k on No in the same window, all leaning against a draw.
Several are seasoned event traders, including one serial cross-market bettor who wins 74% across 143 events.
They paid about 70¢ on average, while No is now near 60¢, so the same side is available cheaper.

$45,220 on No

20-wallet draw surge

Strong one-sided Yes flow from 20 wallets totaling $83k, with a major price breakout and several high-volume serial event traders involved despite some opposing No flow.

20 wallets bought $83k of Yes, pushing the draw price up about 60 percentage points in one day.
Several serial cross-market bettors are involved, including wallets with 69%–81% historical win rates across large event portfolios.
This followed a 28x volume spike, suggesting the move is broader than one isolated whale.

$83,403 on Yes

Proven serial sports sharp

Highly profitable serial sports trader with a 76% win rate and $1.83M lifetime profit bought the draw at 22¢ while also positioning across related event markets.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $1.83M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 217 events and $1.15M in similar event-linked bets.
Entry at 22¢ implies they see the draw as a mispriced long-shot opportunity.

$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

98% winner buying draw

Despite the low composite score, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has an exceptional 98% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor has won 55 of 56 resolved bets and is up $43K lifetime.
They are taking the draw at 24¢, implying a roughly 4x payout if it hits.
The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a thin-market price push.

$1,967 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 47414434, $899,763
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 84455986, $76,000 (86% win rate)
0xaac2...e8ce — Outcome 84455986, $52,786 (95% win rate)
0x7ea5...de7b — Outcome 84455986, $37,991 (61% win rate)
0xb87b...3626 — Outcome 84455986, $35,000 (47% win rate)
0x55b6...09e2 — Outcome 84455986, $28,673 (93% win rate)
0xbb0b...3790 — Outcome 84455986, $24,318 (76% win rate)
0xb014...a357 — Outcome 84455986, $19,277 (68% win rate)
0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 84455986, $15,000 (74% win rate)
0xb385...180e — Outcome 84455986, $13,478 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

Goals, not Germany by two

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Under six World Cup shootouts

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Mexico and Ecuador draw

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Iran keeps Belgium low-scoring

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Japan covers in three-goal game

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Argentina wins low scoring match

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Türkiye vs US match canceled

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Morocco wins low scoring

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Established nations reach knockouts

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Türkiye wins two nil

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Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?

ResolvedTürkiye vs. United States$185,936 tracked5 signalsGamesFIFA World CupSoccerSports

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 25, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Price History — “No”

80¢

77¢

73¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction