What does the 5-year Treasury yield 4.80% market predict?

It predicts whether the 5-year Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.80% at least once between market creation and December 31, 2026.

When does the 5-year Treasury yield market resolve?

It resolves Yes as soon as a qualifying yield of 4.80% or higher is recorded. Otherwise, it resolves after the December 31, 2026 data becomes available, subject to the market's stated resolution rules.

What are the current Polymarket odds for the 5-year Treasury yield reaching 4.80%?

Current Yes and No prices were not provided in the available market metadata, so the latest odds cannot be stated here.

Is smart money betting that the 5-year Treasury yield will hit 4.80%?

The market reports one smart-money signal: a large bettor adding to Yes. The tracked smart-money total is $2,636.

Part of: How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?

This Polymarket asks whether the 5-year Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.80% on any date through December 31, 2026. The current odds were not included in the supplied market data; the market tracks $2,636 in smart money and reports one signal, a large bettor adding to Yes. It resolves once the threshold is reached or when the specified end-of-period data becomes available.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,636.

Categories: Economy, Finance, Fed Rates, Treasuries

Notable Trades

Large bettor adding to Yes

A trader with a large existing Yes position added $2,636 in a market with only $30 of 24-hour volume, signaling notable conviction despite a modest historical win rate.

The bettor added $2,636 to an existing Yes position worth about $3,283 in a market with just $30 of 24-hour volume.
They entered at 80¢, and Yes is now priced around 90¢; the wallet is up $86,010 overall, though its 57% win rate is not exceptional.

$2,636 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%