Part of: NM-02 House Election Winner

Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. The market resolves after the 2026 midterms, scheduled for November 3, 2026, with resolution expected on November 4, 2026, based on the winning candidate’s party affiliation. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,127 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,127.

Categories: Politics, Nov 4 Elections, Elections, House Elections, Midterms, New Mexico Midterm, US Election

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader made a large Yes buy in a quiet House market before the price jumped from 82¢ to 93¢.

  • This bettor is up $238k lifetime and has traded across 29 events.
  • The $3.1k Yes buy was about 65% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • They entered at 82¢ before the market moved to 93¢, suggesting they caught the repricing early.

$3,127 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x096e...9c9c Yes, $4,320 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xc8b9...b836 Yes, $3,827 (65% win rate)
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $3,681
  4. 0x6d57...bfc5 No, $1,702 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x4d1d...01ac No, $900 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x83f8...f751 No, $712
  7. 0x9fd4...325c Yes, $658 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x66e7...8bcd No, $432
  9. 0x714f...66d5 No, $270 (37% win rate)
  10. 0xefac...c9a1 No, $229 (55% win rate)

Related Theses

Republicans win CA-23 seat

Covers 2 related markets

Mazzei will defeat Drummond

Covers 2 related markets

Nordone Wins by 5–10%

Covers 1 related market

Republicans hold OH-14 seat

Covers 1 related market

Conservative wins Peru presidency

Covers 4 related markets

Marx wins by under 1%

Covers 1 related market

Farage will win under 60%

Covers 1 related market

Weiser wins Colorado Democratic primary

Covers 1 related market

Democrats win NM-02 House seat

Covers 1 related market

Fishback tops ten percent

Covers 1 related market

Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?

41dNM-02 House Election Winner$3,127 tracked1 signalPoliticsNov 4 ElectionsElectionsHouse ElectionsMidtermsNew Mexico MidtermUS Election
Yes
95¢
No
6¢

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Price History — “Yes
97¢
92¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?

72d ago

$3,127 on Yes at 82¢

82¢95¢13¢

Related Theses