Part of: Florida Governor Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Democratic nominee will win Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial election. It resolves based on the election winner on November 4, 2026; the provided metadata reports one smart-money signal totaling $2,289 but does not include current market odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,280.

Categories: Florida Midterm, Governor Elections, Politics, Midterms, US Election, Elections, Florida Governor, Key Governor Races

Notable Trades

86% winner adding to Yes

A highly profitable bettor with an 86% record is adding to a Democratic-win position at 35¢, despite the market's long horizon.

  • This bettor has won 126 of 147 resolved trades and is up $129,110.
  • They added $1,050 to Yes at 35¢, building on an existing $3,000 position.
  • The wallet has traded across 47 events, suggesting a sustained cross-market track record.

$1,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

88% winner leads three-wallet No cluster

Three wallets added to No, including a highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate and a substantial record of profitable trades.

  • A bettor with 3,577 resolved positions has an 88% win rate and is up $6.59M, while adding to an existing No position.
  • Three wallets bought No for a combined $7,720 at 63–64¢; two are adding to sizable existing No positions.
  • The market is liquid, and No is priced at 64¢, so this is a notable coordinated position rather than a thin-market price move.

$7,720 on No

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate bought No at 69¢, supported by a long-running cross-market trading record.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They placed a $2,289 bet on No at 69¢, aligning with the current 68% No odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,718 events, showing a long-running cross-market track record.

$2,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven bettor buys Florida No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions bought No at 69¢, backed by an 88% win rate and $6.5M in profits.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They made two buys totaling about $3,645 at 69¢ on No.
  • No is currently priced at 68¢, near their entry, with a 1¢ spread.

$7,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate bought No at 69¢, supported by a long-running cross-market trading record.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They placed a $2,289 bet on No at 69¢, aligning with the current 68% No odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,718 events, showing a long-running cross-market track record.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate bought No at 69¢, supported by a long-running cross-market trading record.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They placed a $2,289 bet on No at 69¢, aligning with the current 68% No odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,718 events, showing a long-running cross-market track record.

$1,251 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven sharp adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with 900 resolved positions and an 84% win rate is adding $5,760 to an existing No position despite recent Yes price gains.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 900 resolved positions and is up $642,098 lifetime.
  • They added $5,760 to No, building on an existing $17,000 position.
  • The bet comes as Yes odds have risen 18.5% over the past week.

$5,760 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate bought No at 69¢, supported by a long-running cross-market trading record.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They placed a $2,289 bet on No at 69¢, aligning with the current 68% No odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,718 events, showing a long-running cross-market track record.

$1,154 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven bettor buys Florida No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions bought No at 69¢, backed by an 88% win rate and $6.5M in profits.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They made two buys totaling about $3,645 at 69¢ on No.
  • No is currently priced at 68¢, near their entry, with a 1¢ spread.

$3,645 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven 88% winner buys No

A highly profitable bettor with 3,535 resolved positions and an 88% win rate bought No at 69¢, supported by a long-running cross-market trading record.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,535 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They placed a $2,289 bet on No at 69¢, aligning with the current 68% No odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 1,718 events, showing a long-running cross-market track record.

$1,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $159,227
  2. 0x27f7...44b0 — No, $41,587 (88% win rate)
  3. 0x819d...07f1 — Yes, $35,069 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xe25b...0f1b — Yes, $30,000 (56% win rate)
  5. 0xe234...304a — Yes, $27,644 (66% win rate)
  6. 0x4488...e319 — Yes, $25,000 (52% win rate)
  7. 0xc301...66aa — No, $21,122 (70% win rate)
  8. 0x1c72...dfb6 — Yes, $20,000 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x2586...c893 — No, $17,000 (84% win rate)
  10. 0x98d0...f14a — Yes, $15,356 (74% win rate)

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Rams win by at least four

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Pacers edge Bucks in low-scoring game

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Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Florida Governor Election Winner$39,280 tracked11 signalsFlorida MidtermGovernor ElectionsPoliticsMidtermsUS ElectionElectionsFlorida GovernorKey Governor Races
Yes
35¢
No
66¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
82¢
71¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-11-02 21:25 UTC

$1,050 on Yes at 35¢

35¢→35¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-11-02 19:28 UTC

$7,720 on No at 64¢

64¢→66¢↑2¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-11-02 19:24 UTC

$2,667 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-11-01 22:15 UTC

$7,596 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-31 15:50 UTC

$5,000 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-31 13:22 UTC

$1,251 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-31 11:11 UTC

$5,760 on No at 64¢

64¢→66¢↑2¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-30 19:29 UTC

$1,154 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-30 18:35 UTC

$3,645 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-30 17:14 UTC

$1,150 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

2026-10-30 16:56 UTC

$2,289 on No at 69¢

69¢→66¢↓3¢

Related Theses