Part of: Michigan Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election. It resolves based on the official election winner, including any runoff; a recent smart-money alert showed an 89% trader scaling into Yes.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,630.

Categories: Politics, Elections, US Election, Midterms, Senate midterms, Michigan Midterm, Abdul El-Sayed, mike rogers

Notable Trades

89% winner scales into Yes

A highly active 89% winner added $7,674 to an existing Michigan Senate Yes position despite the market trading slightly below their entry.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 209 resolved trades and is up $212,199 lifetime.
  • They added $7,674 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment in the market above $26,000.
  • The trade was large relative to recent market activity, although the price has since eased from 66¢ to 64¢.

$10,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

89% winner scales into Yes

A highly active 89% winner added $7,674 to an existing Michigan Senate Yes position despite the market trading slightly below their entry.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 209 resolved trades and is up $212,199 lifetime.
  • They added $7,674 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment in the market above $26,000.
  • The trade was large relative to recent market activity, although the price has since eased from 66¢ to 64¢.

$7,674 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $45,089
  2. 0xe52c...6924 Yes, $35,483 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xd218...b5c9 No, $34,022 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xad89...f6e1 No, $9,339 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xed49...8783 Yes, $9,289 (85% win rate)
  6. 0x1c14...0869 No, $8,709 (65% win rate)
  7. 0x6998...9ff2 Yes, $6,674
  8. 0x328d...f7a9 Yes, $6,350 (90% win rate)
  9. 0x2a48...72ac Yes, $6,126
  10. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $6,000 (67% win rate)

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Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Michigan Senate Election Winner$18,630 tracked2 signalsPoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsSenate midtermsMichigan MidtermAbdul El-Sayedmike rogers
Yes
63¢
No
38¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes
66¢
61¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

2d ago

$10,956 on Yes at 66¢

66¢63¢3¢

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

3d ago

$7,674 on Yes at 66¢

66¢63¢3¢

Related Theses