What is the "The Mandalorian and Grogu" second weekend box office market about?

This market predicts whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will earn more than $31 million at the domestic box office during its second weekend, covering the 3-day period from May 29 to May 31, 2026.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

Resolution will use the final Daily Box Office Performance figures from the Box Office tab on the movie's page at The Numbers. Studio estimates do not count; the market waits for final reported values.

When does the market resolve?

The listed resolution date is June 1, 2026, after final domestic 3-day weekend box office numbers for May 29–31 are available.

What does the $31 million threshold mean?

If the movie's domestic second weekend gross is greater than $31 million, the market resolves Yes. If it is $31 million or lower, it resolves No, subject to the market's official bracket rules.

Is there smart money activity on this market?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,338 in smart money exposure and 1 signal on this market, including an alert tied to a profitable box-office specialist.

Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?

This prediction market asks whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will gross more than $31 million domestically during its second 3-day weekend, May 29–31, 2026. It resolves after final, non-estimate Daily Box Office Performance figures are posted on The Numbers, with resolution expected June 1, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,338 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from a profitable box-office specialist.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,338.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office

Notable Trades

Profitable box-office specialist

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader put a large relative bet on a very thin movie box-office market, buying No for 64% of the day’s volume.

This bettor is up about $602K lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved markets.
The trade was 64% of this market’s entire 24h volume, showing real conviction in a thin book.
They bought No at 89¢, implying strong confidence the second weekend stays under $31M.

$1,338 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%