What is the prediction market for The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend?

This market is about whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will earn between $112 million and $122 million at the domestic box office during its 4-day opening weekend, covering May 22 through May 25, 2026.

How will this Mandalorian and Grogu box office market resolve?

The market will resolve using the final domestic 4-day opening weekend gross listed in the Daily Box Office Performance figures on The Numbers. Studio estimates are not enough; the final reported values are used.

When does the market resolve?

The listed resolution date is May 26, 2026, after final box office data for the 4-day opening weekend is available.

What range needs to hit for this market to be Yes?

For a Yes outcome, the final domestic 4-day opening weekend gross for "The Mandalorian and Grogu" must fall between $112 million and $122 million, according to the market rules.

Is there smart money activity on this market?

Yes. PolySpotter is tracking $1,700 in smart money and 1 smart money signal, including an alert from a profitable serial forecaster.

Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?

This prediction market asks whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will gross between $112 million and $122 million domestically over its 4-day opening weekend from May 22 to May 25, 2026. It resolves after final daily box office figures are posted by The Numbers, not based on early studio estimates. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,700 in smart money and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,700.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

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