Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?

This Polymarket market asks whether The Mandalorian and Grogu will gross between $92 million and $102 million domestically over its 4-day opening weekend from May 22 to May 25, 2026. It resolves after final Daily Box Office Performance figures are posted on The Numbers, with resolution expected on May 26, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $4,104 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,104.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Experienced box-office event trader

Experienced cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L bought $4.1k of Yes in a thin box-office bracket that has strong recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor has traded 111 related markets across 66 events and is up about $79k lifetime.
  • They bought $4.1k of Yes at 70¢, a meaningful size versus the market’s $8.3k liquidity.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 18 points in the last day and 45.5 points over the week.

$4,104 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $19,490
  2. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $12,050 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xe25b...0f1b Yes, $7,854 (56% win rate)
  4. 0x4da7...355e Yes, $5,864 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x5095...93ee Yes, $5,279 (49% win rate)
  6. 0xb94c...b5b5 Yes, $5,040 (76% win rate)
  7. 0xe2b1...7d2a No, $2,374 (45% win rate)
  8. 0xf7bb...a9f7 Yes, $1,955 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x6018...170c Yes, $1,817 (42% win rate)
  10. 0xbe78...c533 Yes, $1,797 (42% win rate)

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Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?

3d"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office$4,104 tracked1 signalMoviesCulturebox officeRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
79¢
No
22¢

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “Yes
84¢
47¢
11¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?

5h ago

$4,104 on Yes at 70¢

70¢79¢9¢

Related Theses