Part of: Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

This prediction market asks whether the next Google Gemini model added to the LM Arena text leaderboard will debut with an Overall Text Arena score of at least 1480. It resolves based on the Score column at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the model first appears on the leaderboard; PolySpotter currently tracks $2,000 in smart money and 1 recent signal, a thin-market Yes bet.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Gemini, google, Tech, AI, Debut

Notable Trades

New wallet thin-market Yes bet

A new wallet made a $2,000 Yes buy in a thin, wide-spread AI leaderboard market, representing a large share of liquidity despite only limited track record.

  • A 25-day-old wallet put $2,000 on Yes in a market with only about $2,100 of liquidity.
  • The trade was large for this quiet market, with a 23-point bid/ask spread and just $6,412 total volume.
  • Entry at 87¢ suggests high conviction that the next Gemini model clears 1480.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0bfb...26a7 — Outcome 10234624, $4,102
  2. 0x844a...5f53 — Outcome 10234624, $1,223
  3. 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10234624, $1,200 (42% win rate)
  4. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Outcome 10234624, $935
  5. 0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 10234624, $600 (68% win rate)
  6. 0xbb75...f496 — Outcome 10234624, $375
  7. 0x0035...6e64 — Outcome 10234624, $200
  8. 0x3690...e16f — Outcome 10234624, $200
  9. 0x45ea...be16 — Outcome 10234624, $111
  10. 0x0711...f03c — Outcome 10234624, $85

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?$2,000 tracked1 signalGeminigoogleTechAIDebut

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Notable Trades

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

1d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 87¢