What does this Bitcoin prediction market measure?

This market measures whether Bitcoin will be trading above $74,000 at exactly 12:00 PM ET on April 18, 2026, using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle's final close price.

How does the market resolve?

It resolves to "Yes" if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for 12:00 PM ET on April 18 has a final close above $74,000. If the close is $74,000 or lower, it resolves to "No".

Why does the exact candle close matter?

Because this is a time-specific Bitcoin price market, the outcome depends only on the official final close of the designated 1-minute Binance candle, not on whether BTC traded above $74,000 earlier or later in the day.

When will this Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on April 18, 2026, after the relevant Binance BTC/USDT noon ET candle data is available and confirmed.

What smart money activity is being tracked?

PolySpotter is tracking $3,524 in smart money on this market across 1 smart money signal, including a recent alert mentioning a 91% win-rate BTC bettor.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above $74,000 on April 18, 2026. It resolves based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET that day, with "Yes" if the final close is higher than $74,000 and "No" otherwise. PolySpotter is currently tracking $3,524 in smart money on this market, including activity tied to a 91% win-rate BTC bettor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,524.

Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring

Notable Trades

91% win-rate BTC bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit just made a market-dominating $3.5k buy in an extremely thin BTC market, signaling conviction despite limited liquidity.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime across 821 bets.
Their $3.5k order was 33x the market's entire 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in a very thin market.
They bought No at 72¢, implying they see Bitcoin staying below $74k as better than the market price suggested.

$3,524 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%