This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $163k lifetime. They acted about 58 minutes before resolution, a useful pattern when paired with a strong track record. Selling Yes at 21¢ is equivalent to buying No at 79¢, and the market has since moved further their way.

Part of: Bitcoin above ___ on April 27?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,230.

Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring

Notable Trades

91% win-rate timer

A highly profitable wallet with a 91% win rate sold Yes about an hour before resolution, effectively taking a bearish Bitcoin-above-$78k position as the market was collapsing.

This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $163k lifetime.
They acted about 58 minutes before resolution, a useful pattern when paired with a strong track record.
Selling Yes at 21¢ is equivalent to buying No at 79¢, and the market has since moved further their way.

$1,805 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial timer fading panic

A profitable serial timer with $279k lifetime P&L bought Yes about 58 minutes before resolution into a sharp 41-point selloff, suggesting a deliberate contrarian stab at 20¢.

This wallet is up $279k lifetime and has a pattern of betting near resolution across 3 markets.
They bought Yes at 20¢ after the Yes price crashed 41 points in 4 minutes, a clear contrarian entry.
The market is liquid and close to expiry, so this looks more like a timed conviction trade than random whale flow.

$1,131 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

4-wallet BTC rebound cluster

Four wallets piled into Yes for nearly $22k during a major volume spike after a sharp price dislocation, suggesting coordinated conviction on a liquid BTC event market.

Four wallets bought nearly $22k of Yes in the same window, a strong one-sided cluster on a high-volume Bitcoin market.
They bought after a violent swing, with entries from 57¢ to 70¢ and the market already rebounding to 74¢.
Two of the larger wallets are profitable over 1,300+ resolved bets each, adding some credibility to the flow despite mixed wallet quality.

$21,787 on Yes

91% win-rate contrarian

A highly profitable wallet with a 91% win rate sold Yes at 71¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 29¢, making this a notable sharp contrarian bet despite the market's strong liquidity.

This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up $163k lifetime
They sold Yes at 71¢, which is the same as buying No at 29¢
The trade went against a market that had just surged, suggesting they saw the price as too high

$4,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

91% win-rate BTC bettor

A small but very profitable wallet with a 91% win rate bought Yes in a high-volume BTC expiry market during a major pre-resolution volume surge, making this a copy-worthy signal despite only one trade.

This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $163k.
They bought $5.7k of Yes at 43¢ as market volume ran 244x above normal.
The same wallet is active across related BTC markets, which suggests a deliberate event view rather than a random punt.

$5,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

91% win-rate BTC bettor

A small but proven sharp wallet with a 91% hit rate bought Yes at 43¢ in a liquid BTC market after the price had dropped, making this a credible directional signal despite only one trade.

This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $163k overall.
They bought Yes at 43¢ after the market fell 10 points in a day, suggesting they see the drop as overdone.
They are also positioning across 2 related BTC markets, pointing to a broader event view rather than a random one-off bet.

$2,982 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%