Part of: South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the Republican candidate will win the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. The market has recorded $21,771 in tracked smart-money activity and resolves based on the official election outcome.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,788.

Categories: Midterms, Elections, Politics, US Election, Senate midterms, South Carolina Midterm

Notable Trades

90% winner scaling into Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding substantially to an existing Yes position in a thinly traded market, though the simultaneous No trade makes the broader thesis somewhat hedged.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 42 resolved trades and is up $227,134 lifetime.
  • They invested $8,815 to add to an existing Yes position, bringing total exposure to roughly $41,000.
  • The $21,771 alert represented a large share of recent market activity, supporting meaningful conviction despite the paired No trade.

$21,771 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Sharp bettor scaling into Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate and strong historical edge is adding $7,017 to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 85%.

  • This bettor wins 90% of trades, with $227,134 in lifetime profit and a 27-point edge over implied odds.
  • They added $7,017 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment to $21,734.
  • The trade represents 271% of reported 24-hour volume, signaling unusually strong conviction in a relatively quiet market.

$7,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1fee...ed5e Yes, $32,706 (90% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $11,660
  3. 0x162f...798d No, $9,984 (65% win rate)
  4. 0x9a06...3800 No, $9,878 (81% win rate)
  5. 0x69e7...d3b0 Yes, $9,000 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x94c4...43ca No, $8,918 (76% win rate)
  7. 0x9648...6825 No, $7,855 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xe72e...282d Yes, $4,657 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x5c60...67c1 Yes, $3,851
  10. 0xad60...97f4 Yes, $1,700 (83% win rate)

Related Theses

Neither party controls Senate

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Karen Bass will retain mayoralty

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Peru elects right-wing president

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No Democratic Senate-Republican House split

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Republicans will win South Carolina

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Maine Senate race remains wide open

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Democrats take the House

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Farage wins 60–70% in Clacton

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Republicans will win Iowa Senate

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Democrats will lose Kansas Senate

Covers 1 related market

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

South Carolina Senate Election Winner$28,788 tracked2 signalsMidtermsElectionsPoliticsUS ElectionSenate midtermsSouth Carolina Midterm
Yes
87¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
86¢
83¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

4d ago

$21,771 on Yes at 86¢

86¢87¢1¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

6d ago

$7,017 on Yes at 85¢

85¢87¢2¢

Related Theses