Part of: South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the Republican candidate will win the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. The market has recorded $21,771 in tracked smart-money activity and resolves based on the official election outcome.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $92,495.

Categories: South Carolina Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, Elections, Politics, US Election, Senate midterms

Notable Trades

Proven sharp adding to Yes

A profitable, proven bettor with an 80% win rate and meaningful edge made a $10,000 Yes buy, alongside a history of cross-market trading.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved trades and is up $95,357.
  • Their 80% win rate is well above the 58% average odds in their track record.
  • They put $10,000 more on Yes at 74¢ and have traded across 43 events.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven sharp adding to Yes

A profitable, proven bettor with an 80% win rate and meaningful edge made a $10,000 Yes buy, alongside a history of cross-market trading.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved trades and is up $95,357.
  • Their 80% win rate is well above the 58% average odds in their track record.
  • They put $10,000 more on Yes at 74¢ and have traded across 43 events.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable sharp adding to Yes

A proven bettor with an 80% win rate and $95k profit is adding $15,000 to an existing Yes position, with a reported 22-point edge over average odds.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved trades and is up $95,357.
  • They added $15,000 to an existing Yes position at an average price of about 75¢.
  • Their 80% win rate is well above their 58% average odds, with a reported 22-point edge.

$15,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven sharp adding to Yes

A profitable, proven bettor with an 80% win rate and meaningful edge made a $10,000 Yes buy, alongside a history of cross-market trading.

  • This bettor has won 61 of 76 resolved trades and is up $95,357.
  • Their 80% win rate is well above the 58% average odds in their track record.
  • They put $10,000 more on Yes at 74¢ and have traded across 43 events.

$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable bettor trims Yes position

A highly profitable bettor with a 78% record sold Yes, but the trade appears to trim an existing position and is less decisive than a fresh bearish entry.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up about $300,000.
  • Four wallets share a funder, adding context to the trade, though this sale is only a trim of an existing Yes position.
  • Selling Yes at 72¢ translates to buying No at about 28¢; the wallet’s Yes position was entered at roughly the same price.

$5,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial trader bets $7.7K

A highly experienced, profitable trader with 8,357 resolved bets made a $7,728 purchase on the Republican outcome, although the market already prices it at 86%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 8,357 resolved bets and is up $748K overall.
  • They put $7,728 on Republicans to win, a substantial position in a market with about $10K in 24-hour volume.
  • The outcome is already priced at 86%, so the entry leaves limited upside if the market is right.

$15,381 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial trader bets $7.7K

A highly experienced, profitable trader with 8,357 resolved bets made a $7,728 purchase on the Republican outcome, although the market already prices it at 86%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 8,357 resolved bets and is up $748K overall.
  • They put $7,728 on Republicans to win, a substantial position in a market with about $10K in 24-hour volume.
  • The outcome is already priced at 86%, so the entry leaves limited upside if the market is right.

$7,728 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

90% winner scaling into Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding substantially to an existing Yes position in a thinly traded market, though the simultaneous No trade makes the broader thesis somewhat hedged.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 42 resolved trades and is up $227,134 lifetime.
  • They invested $8,815 to add to an existing Yes position, bringing total exposure to roughly $41,000.
  • The $21,771 alert represented a large share of recent market activity, supporting meaningful conviction despite the paired No trade.

$21,771 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp bettor scaling into Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate and strong historical edge is adding $7,017 to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 85%.

  • This bettor wins 90% of trades, with $227,134 in lifetime profit and a 27-point edge over implied odds.
  • They added $7,017 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment to $21,734.
  • The trade represents 271% of reported 24-hour volume, signaling unusually strong conviction in a relatively quiet market.

$7,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

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Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

South Carolina Senate Election Winner$92,495 tracked9 signalsSouth Carolina MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsElectionsPoliticsUS ElectionSenate midterms
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
102¢
63¢
25¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 04:04 UTC

$5,000 on Yes at 74¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 03:50 UTC

$5,000 on Yes at 74¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 03:45 UTC

$15,000 on Yes at 75¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 03:38 UTC

$10,000 on Yes at 74¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-29 21:21 UTC

$5,599 on No at 28¢

28¢→100¢↑72¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-04 23:50 UTC

$15,381 on Yes at 86¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-04 13:35 UTC

$7,728 on Yes at 86¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-19 01:48 UTC

$21,771 on Yes at 86¢

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-17 01:04 UTC

$7,017 on Yes at 85¢

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