Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex will reach at least $12,450 on any day before April 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if the Rolex Index touches or exceeds that level in USD at any point during the market window, and No if it never gets there. Traders watching luxury watch prices, collectibles, and alternative asset trends use this market to gauge the odds of a Rolex price breakout.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,771.

Categories: Economy, bloomberg, watch, Collectibles, Finance, Subdial, rolex, Rolex index

Notable Trades

Thin-market Rolex whale

A moderately successful bettor concentrated nearly $4.8k into a very thin Rolex market across related contracts, moving through a weak order book with unusual size and conviction.

  • This wallet wins 73% of its resolved bets and put $4.8k into related Rolex targets in one burst.
  • The trades were huge for this market, ranging from 97% to 433% of recent volume with only about $100 of book depth.
  • Buying between 55¢ and 73¢ shows strong conviction in a niche market, even though the price has since slipped to 38¢.

$4,771 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x48ec...8f36 — Outcome 24654191, $1,868
  2. 0xba2d...2f32 — Outcome 24654191, $1,797
  3. 0x45b2...cbc1 — Outcome 24654191, $1,044 (15% win rate)
  4. 0x7495...7fcf — Outcome 24654191, $747
  5. 0x9d73...216b — Outcome 24654191, $552 (76% win rate)
  6. 0xa1ff...55bd — Outcome 24654191, $500
  7. 0x4541...30d3 — Outcome 24654191, $348
  8. 0x21ff...0d71 — Outcome 24654191, $247
  9. 0x6f08...54d3 — Outcome 24654191, $147
  10. 0x51f2...38ef — Outcome 24654191, $131

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?

8d$4,771 tracked1 signalEconomybloombergwatchCollectiblesFinanceSubdialrolexRolex index

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

Notable Trades

Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?

3h ago

$4,771 on Yes at 63¢

Related Theses

Wallet_0x44147 trades 2 related markets
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,4…Will the Rolex Index hit $12,3…