Part of: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,330.

Categories: Weather, Science, Natural Disasters, Culture, Earthquakes

Notable Trades

Profitable wallet moved thin market

Profitable high-volume wallet bought No at 86¢ on a thin earthquake market and the position quickly moved to 96¢ with notable price impact.

This bettor has a long track record, with 452 resolved trades and $38K in lifetime profit.
Their $1.3K No buy was meaningful in a thin market and helped push No from 86¢ to 96¢.
The market has a wide spread and limited liquidity, so this looks like a confident statistical edge rather than routine flow.

$1,330 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 85646724, $4,478
0xf074...ee64 — Outcome 78078085, $1,428
0xf257...1950 — Outcome 78078085, $1,225
0x565e...875d — Outcome 78078085, $1,042
0x59f3...a7fa — Outcome 85646724, $1,017
0x722f...f17f — Outcome 85646724, $702
0x81a6...762e — Outcome 78078085, $500
0xe7fd...a3e1 — Outcome 78078085, $399
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 78078085, $391
0xbf57...588e — Outcome 78078085, $373

Related Theses

McConnell will leave Senate early

Covers 1 related market

Virginia will avoid exceptional drought

Covers 1 related market

Malaysia’s parliament won’t dissolve

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

ResolvedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)$1,330 tracked1 signalWeatherScienceNatural DisastersCultureEarthquakes

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.