Part of: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,169.

Categories: Iran, Yemen, houthi, Houthis, Geopolitics, Middle East, saudi arabia

Notable Trades

Serial winner adding No

Serial cross-market trader with a strong resolved record is adding to an existing No position on a very thin geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 94% of resolved bets and is up $18.4K lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now with about $3.1K invested on this market.
  • This $1.17K buy was over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin order book.

$1,169 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0d05...6a81 Outcome 73302334, $3,300 (14% win rate)
  2. 0x126e...c360 Outcome 73302334, $2,000
  3. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 73302334, $2,000
  4. 0x85a8...9281 Outcome 73302334, $1,232 (93% win rate)
  5. 0xb4f2...e5fa Outcome 73302334, $885 (76% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a Outcome 73302334, $855 (50% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 73302334, $731
  8. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 73302334, $706
  9. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 73302334, $620
  10. 0x28e6...a59d Outcome 73302334, $489

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Hamas will refuse to disarm

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Foreign intervention in Gaza soon

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Ceasefire holds through mid-August

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Hormuz traffic won’t normalize by September

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Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

ResolvedHouthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?$1,169 tracked1 signalIranYemenhouthiHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle Eastsaudi arabia

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
92¢
57¢
22¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

56d ago

$1,169 on No at 67¢

Related Theses