Part of: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,720.

Categories: Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Geopolitics, Middle East, saudi arabia, Regional Spillover

Notable Trades

Three-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Three wallets with existing Yes positions added $8,720 around 90¢, contributing to a sharp 44-point daily move in a relatively thin market.

  • Three wallets added $8,720 to Yes around 89–90¢, with each already holding a Yes position.
  • The coordinated buying represented roughly 54% of detected 24-hour volume and helped drive Yes odds up 44 points in one day.
  • One participating bettor has a 73% win rate across 313 resolved markets, though the current 95¢ price leaves limited upside.

$8,720 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 58527052, $2,000
  2. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 58527052, $1,694
  3. 0x85a8...9281 Outcome 58527052, $1,565 (92% win rate)
  4. 0xc984...37ca Outcome 58527052, $1,000 (71% win rate)
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 58527052, $733
  6. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 58527052, $617
  7. 0x8c0b...f0fb Outcome 58527052, $566 (74% win rate)
  8. 0xff52...4546 Outcome 58527052, $500
  9. 0x38f5...6824 Outcome 58527052, $412 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x4d77...af31 Outcome 58527052, $300

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?

ResolvedSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?$8,720 tracked1 signalIranYemenHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle Eastsaudi arabiaRegional Spillover

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Yemen. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
59¢
17¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?

30d ago

$8,720 on Yes at 90¢