Part of: How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Donald Trump’s approval rating in Silver Bulletin’s polling average will be 35% or lower on any finalized date from January 1 through December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if the rating hits the threshold at least once during 2026, and No if it never does; PolySpotter is tracking $1,280 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,280.

Categories: Politics, Trump, Approval

Notable Trades

Proven political bettor

Surfaced because the bettor has a strong 307-bet track record and positive lifetime P&L despite the alert itself being only a weak low-volume signal.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $56.9K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 64¢, betting Trump will not hit 35% approval in 2026.
  • The market is fairly quiet today, so a $1.3K buy from a proven wallet is worth tracking.

$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf769...0114 No, $19,900 (79% win rate)
  2. 0x993c...6787 Yes, $17,000 (40% win rate)
  3. 0xf797...0bf2 No, $5,160 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x36da...8218 Yes, $4,520 (29% win rate)
  5. 0xbad2...5296 Yes, $2,942 (51% win rate)
  6. 0xb100...6461 No, $2,782 (59% win rate)
  7. 0xe3d0...4e7d Yes, $1,487
  8. 0x1bdf...1b74 No, $1,100
  9. 0xb626...2138 Yes, $755
  10. 0xadaf...f9f2 No, $571

Related Theses

Starmer exits in June

Covers 4 related markets

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

198dHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?$1,280 tracked1 signalPoliticsTrumpApproval
Yes
37¢
No
63¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

Price History — “No
66¢
62¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

3h ago

$1,280 on No at 64¢

64¢63¢1¢

Related Theses