Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

This Polymarket asks whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures will print a 1-minute candle low at or below $75 at any time before the end of April 2026. It resolves Yes if that price is touched during the market window, and No if WTI stays above $75 throughout. Traders use this market to track real-time odds on a significant downside move in oil prices.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,459.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil

Notable Trades

Proven oil-event specialist

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with 763 resolved bets is buying No at 78¢ on this WTI event, adding a credible directional signal despite the modest trade size.

  • This bettor has a strong real track record: 65% wins across 763 resolved bets and about $97k profit
  • They have traded 5 markets tied to this same WTI event for $38k total, suggesting a developed event-level view rather than a one-off bet
  • Buying No at 78¢ means they see the $75 low as unlikely in April, and the market is liquid enough that this looks like deliberate positioning

$1,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Sharp oil-event trader

A high-volume cross-market crude trader with a strong long-term record is buying No again, suggesting a repeatable event-level edge rather than a one-off bet.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $566k lifetime across more than 1,000 bets
  • They put nearly $64k across 5 related crude markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a random punt
  • They bought No at 76¢, a high-confidence position that this price level will not be hit this month

$1,029 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x32b4...8b21 Yes, $23,058 (64% win rate)
  2. 0x33fa...169d Yes, $19,602
  3. 0xea79...a9cc No, $16,232 (65% win rate)
  4. 0x6dc4...6770 No, $10,702 (78% win rate)
  5. 0xe734...4f0c Yes, $10,319 (39% win rate)
  6. 0x993c...6787 No, $6,000
  7. 0xa3df...6f87 Yes, $5,000 (24% win rate)
  8. 0x3d18...1160 No, $3,500 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x63b0...4cf2 No, $3,311
  10. 0xff99...5602 No, $2,528 (74% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

17d$2,459 tracked2 signalsFinanceMonthlyHit PriceHide From NewFinance UpdownCommoditiesOil
Yes
23¢
No
78¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Price History — “No
87¢
79¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

1h ago

$1,430 on No at 78¢

78¢78¢

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

1h ago

$1,029 on No at 76¢

76¢78¢2¢

Related Theses

WTI Oil to Hit $75 Low in April 2026 Odds | PolySpotter