Sharp bettor buying longshot
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
A proven profitable bettor with a strong edge is buying a 20¢ longshot in a liquid market, making this a credible sharp-conviction signal despite only one trigger.
Total
$1,291
Trades
1
Win Rate
19%
Wallet P&L
+$116,195
Analysis
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up about $167k across 45 resolved positions
- They bought Yes at 20¢, a price that suggests they see this outcome as meaningfully underpriced
- The market is active and trending up, with this outcome up 6.6 points in a day and 16.1 points in a week
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 20¢
Detected April 21, 2026 at 7:58 AM