86% win-rate political sharp
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
A highly profitable serial political trader with an 86% win rate just bought into a thin CA-11 market after a sharp weekly move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest absolute size.
Total
$1,053
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$1,204,101
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime
- They trade across 94 events and 150 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- This $1.1k buy was 5.6x the market's prior 24h volume, and they paid 78¢ in a market already up 32.5% this week
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 78¢
Detected April 23, 2026 at 2:58 PM