Profitable serial cross-market trader
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a thin geopolitics market, with the bet equal to about one-third of 24h volume.
Total
$1,130
Trades
1
Win Rate
70%
Wallet P&L
+$39,083
Analysis
- This bettor has won 70% of 294 resolved bets and is up about $38K lifetime.
- They have traded across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
- The $1.1K No buy was large for this quiet market, equal to roughly 36% of the last 24 hours of volume.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 75¢
Detected May 1, 2026 at 1:17 PM