74% serial cross-market bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved-bet win rate is adding a modest but meaningful No position on a relatively quiet geopolitical market.
Total
$1,527
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$156,276
Analysis
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,011 resolved bets and is up $164k lifetime.
- They have traded 245 markets across 156 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $1.5k No buy is nearly half of this market’s 24h volume, entered around 63¢.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 63¢
Detected May 1, 2026 at 10:07 PM