Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil will be announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks live market odds plus smart money activity, including $1,527 in tracked smart money and 1 recent signal from geopolitics-focused bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,540.
Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba, Politics
Notable Trades
74% serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved-bet win rate is adding a modest but meaningful No position on a relatively quiet geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,011 resolved bets and is up $164k lifetime.
- They have traded 245 markets across 156 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $1.5k No buy is nearly half of this market’s 24h volume, entered around 63¢.
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven cross-market winner
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and $163k profit is taking a fresh directional position here by selling No, equivalent to buying Yes around 43¢.
- This bettor has won 74% of 984 resolved markets and is up $163k lifetime
- The trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 43¢, close to the current 44¢ ask
- They trade across many related markets with scale: 139 events, 224 markets, and $1.47M deployed
$1,914 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 39¢, a meaningful fresh position in a moderately active geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k on Polymarket.
- They trade across 128 markets and 78 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought Yes at 39¢ while the market sits around 40¢, signaling they see the strike risk as underpriced.
$2,521 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
74% serial event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 74% win rate sold No here, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 36¢ and is worth tracking despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 74% of 961 resolved markets and is up $126.6k lifetime
- They trade across related markets at scale: 132 events, 217 markets, and $1.45M tracked in these patterns
- Selling No at 64¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 36¢, close to the current 37% market price
$2,308 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
A proven high-volume bettor with a 73% win rate and 910 resolved markets made a sizable fresh bet on No in this geopolitical market, with the trade accounting for most of the day’s volume.
- This bettor has won 667 of 910 resolved markets and is up $107k overall
- The $4.8k buy made up 73% of this market's 24-hour volume, showing real conviction
- They trade across 105 events and 187 related markets, suggesting a repeatable macro-news edge
$4,808 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
A repeat new wallet has already made nearly $248k of flagged bets and just put $9.5k into a quiet geopolitical market, suggesting real conviction despite no proven track record yet.
- This 18-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling about $248k
- The $9.5k order was 269% of this market’s entire 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market
- They bought No at 69¢ in a geopolitical market with real headline risk, so this is a clear directional thesis rather than routine trading
$9,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xb8e3...aaf2 — No, $61,721 (100% win rate)
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $43,726 (63% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $36,169 (36% win rate)
- 0x1f30...c65a — Yes, $15,939
- 0x524c...6b4f — No, $15,367
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $14,579 (76% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $12,171 (75% win rate)
- 0x56ab...784e — Yes, $11,184 (21% win rate)
- 0x3248...f20b — No, $8,386
- 0xa87a...5403 — No, $7,505
Related Theses
Peace deal by May 2026
Covers 5 related markets
