Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil will be announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket odds plus smart-money activity, including $2,292 in monitored flow and recent alerts showing both Yes and No wallet movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $585,755.
Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba, Politics
Notable Trades
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
New profitable Yes cluster
A profitable 5-day-old repeat bettor and two other wallets bought $7.6k of Yes while the market is already moving sharply upward.
- A 5-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying Yes again, already up $1,465 across flagged positions.
- Three wallets bought the same side for $7.6k, with entries from 45¢ to 57¢.
- Yes has jumped 13.5 points in the past day, and the first buyer is already well in profit.
$7,635 on Yes
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xb8e3...aaf2 — No, $68,721 (100% win rate)
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $59,548 (53% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $37,169 (36% win rate)
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $27,355 (75% win rate)
- 0x71e1...45f0 — Yes, $18,000 (59% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $17,471 (70% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — No, $16,381 (80% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $15,912 (64% win rate)
- 0x524c...6b4f — No, $15,367
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $13,583 (49% win rate)
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