85% winner buying thin Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moderately interesting: a profitable 85% bettor bought Yes in a thin, wide-spread market that has already moved sharply upward.
Total
$2,284
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$31,338
Analysis
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $31K lifetime.
- Their $2.3K Yes buy is large for this thin market, roughly matching available liquidity.
- Yes is up 20% today, so this looks like follow-through on strong momentum.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 61¢
Detected May 3, 2026 at 12:27 PM