Thin-market Yes whale

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.612850° N, 36.062680° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
A single wallet made a $2.6k Yes buy that was nearly 8x the market's 24h volume in a thin Russia-Ukraine territory market and the price has already moved sharply higher.
Total
$2,593
Trades
1
Win Rate
67%
Wallet P&L
+$11,971
Analysis
- This $2.6k buy was almost 8x the market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a quiet market.
- The bettor entered at 54¢ and the market is now around 68¢ after a 31-point move in the last day.
- The wallet is modestly profitable so far, up about $12k across 6 resolved bets.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 54¢
Detected May 10, 2026 at 9:05 AM