Elite political bettor fades Yes
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sharp political bettor with an 85% resolved win rate and $1.29M lifetime profit is buying No on a niche NE-02 Democratic nominee market.
Total
$1,012
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$1,294,139
Analysis
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.29M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $4.6M deployed across 111 events.
- Buying No at 49¢ suggests they think Cavanaugh is less likely than the market implies.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 49¢
Detected May 11, 2026 at 3:57 PM