94% winner buying No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Surface due to a profitable 94% win-rate wallet taking a fresh No position, despite the modest trade size and common two-market correlation signal.
Total
$1,656
Trades
1
Win Rate
94%
Wallet P&L
+$548
Analysis
- This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved bets and is up $1,405 lifetime.
- They bought No at 88¢, backing the high-probability view that Musk will not land in this tweet-count range.
- The wallet is also positioned across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader count-range thesis.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected May 13, 2026 at 1:57 PM