Serial cross-market winner

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Serial cross-market trader with a large 1,232-bet history and positive P&L bought No despite a sharp market move toward Yes.
Total
$1,787
Trades
1
Win Rate
68%
Wallet P&L
+$116,858
Analysis
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,232 resolved bets, a 67% win rate, and $63K in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 268 events with over $1M in tracked volume.
- They bought No at 71¢ while the market has recently surged toward Yes, making this a notable contrarian position.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 71¢
Detected May 14, 2026 at 5:41 AM