Smart Money SignalScore: 4.0

Profitable cross-market bettor

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Experienced profitable political bettor is taking the No side while also positioning across related Paxton primary markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

Total

$3,566

Trades

Win Rate

69%

Wallet P&L

+$862,266

Analysis

This bettor has a long track record, with 774 resolved bets and about $150K in lifetime profit.
They are positioning across multiple related markets, suggesting a broader view against Paxton rather than a single small punt.
Entry at 40¢ implies they see the No side as underpriced, and the market is still available cheaper around 36¢.

Copy Trade

Buy No at 40¢

Politics US Election Elections Primaries Parent For Derivative primary elections Texas Senate Senate Primary Republican Primary Texas Primary March 3 Primaries

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Detected May 19, 2026 at 3:12 PM