86% serial event trader

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite the market pulling back sharply.
Total
$3,519
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$58,586
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,135 bets and is up about $57.9k lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.17M deployed across 146 events and 232 markets.
- They bought Yes at 65¢ on a market now around 50¢, suggesting a cheaper follow-in price than their entry.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 65¢
Detected May 29, 2026 at 1:50 PM