Smart Money Alert: Fed rate hike in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A very profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is taking a fresh macro view here by effectively buying Yes at 25¢.
Total
$4,685
Trades
1
Win Rate
92%
Wallet P&L
+$2,185,175
Analysis
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M across more than 760 bets
- The trade is a sell of No at 75¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢
- This is a meaningful $4.7k position from a wallet active across 65 events and 87 markets
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 25¢
Detected March 30, 2026 at 8:59 PM