Part of: Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will increase at any point from January 1 through the Fed’s December 2026 meeting. It resolves Yes if the Fed hikes rates during that period and No otherwise, with final resolution based on the Federal Reserve’s official decision; the market resolves by December 9, 2026. Check the live Polymarket odds and smart money activity for the latest market view.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
39 smart money signals detected, totaling $217,166.
Categories: Fed, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Economy, Fed Rates, Macro Single, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Proven sharp buying No
A highly experienced and profitable trader with a 78% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh No position at near-market price.
- This bettor has won 78% of 1,012 resolved trades and is up $530,378 lifetime.
- The trader’s results beat their average winning entry price by 21%, indicating a meaningful historical edge.
- They bought No at 46¢ in a liquid market, positioning against a 2026 Fed rate hike.
$1,075 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Proven sharp buying No
A highly experienced and profitable trader with a 78% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh No position at near-market price.
- This bettor has won 78% of 1,012 resolved trades and is up $530,378 lifetime.
- The trader’s results beat their average winning entry price by 21%, indicating a meaningful historical edge.
- They bought No at 46¢ in a liquid market, positioning against a 2026 Fed rate hike.
$1,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,457 resolved positions and is up $764,402.
- Their average winning entry is 43%, yet they are buying Yes at 64%, signaling strong conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 48 events and 58 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record.
$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial macro bettor winning 76%
A proven serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Fed market after strong recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime across 157 results.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 92 events and $218K in tracked volume.
- Bought Yes at 65¢ after a 24.5-point one-day move, backing continued momentum toward a 2026 Fed hike.
$4,192 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,457 resolved positions and is up $764,402.
- Their average winning entry is 43%, yet they are buying Yes at 64%, signaling strong conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 48 events and 58 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record.
$2,975 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,457 resolved positions and is up $764,402.
- Their average winning entry is 43%, yet they are buying Yes at 64%, signaling strong conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 48 events and 58 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Coordinated shift toward Yes
Three wallets collectively exited $18.7k of No exposure during a 95.9x volume spike, signaling a coordinated shift toward Yes, though prior positions make this less compelling than fresh buying.
- Three wallets sold $18,689 of No shares together, equivalent to buying Yes around 63–64¢.
- The trades arrived during a 95.9x surge versus the market’s normal activity.
- All three had prior No positions, so this may reflect coordinated exits rather than entirely new conviction.
$18,689 on Yes
Serial cross-market trader buys Yes
A highly active trader with a $744K profit history placed a fresh $2.5K Yes bet while the market was rising, though the trader's 72% win rate shows only modest edge over typical entry prices.
- This trader is up about $744K across 88 resolved bets and has participated in 59 events.
- They made a fresh $2,539 bet on Yes at 63¢, adding conviction to a market already up 14% this week.
- The 72% win rate is solid but only modestly above the trader's 70¢ average winning entry price.
$17,518 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Serial cross-market trader buys Yes
A highly active trader with a $744K profit history placed a fresh $2.5K Yes bet while the market was rising, though the trader's 72% win rate shows only modest edge over typical entry prices.
- This trader is up about $744K across 88 resolved bets and has participated in 59 events.
- They made a fresh $2,539 bet on Yes at 63¢, adding conviction to a market already up 14% this week.
- The 72% win rate is solid but only modestly above the trader's 70¢ average winning entry price.
$8,896 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Serial cross-market trader buys Yes
A highly active trader with a $744K profit history placed a fresh $2.5K Yes bet while the market was rising, though the trader's 72% win rate shows only modest edge over typical entry prices.
- This trader is up about $744K across 88 resolved bets and has participated in 59 events.
- They made a fresh $2,539 bet on Yes at 63¢, adding conviction to a market already up 14% this week.
- The 72% win rate is solid but only modestly above the trader's 70¢ average winning entry price.
$2,539 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x7b02...4991 — Yes, $236,863 (57% win rate)
- 0xa309...4cf2 — Yes, $208,279 (25% win rate)
- 0x0dcc...5a1f — No, $161,657
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — No, $135,101 (67% win rate)
- 0xd87a...d3b8 — No, $120,000
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $114,761 (63% win rate)
- 0x71ed...d338 — No, $96,733 (83% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $85,998 (57% win rate)
- 0x56ad...f13e — Yes, $70,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x33dc...bb81 — Yes, $68,000 (75% win rate)
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