Part of: Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
44 smart money signals detected, totaling $258,950.
Categories: Fed, Economic Policy, Jerome Powell, Economy, Fed Rates, Macro Single, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Profitable trader scales into Yes
A profitable serial trader with a $256,000 lifetime profit is adding $31,738 to an existing Yes position amid a 369x volume spike.
- This bettor has won 66% of 258 resolved trades and is up $256,000 lifetime.
- They added $31,738 to an existing Yes position, raising their exposure after previously entering at 76¢.
- The three trades coincided with a 369x spike versus the market’s historical trading volume.
$31,738 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor reinforces Yes
A bettor with a 90% win rate and substantial existing Yes exposure is closing a No position, reinforcing the already-rising Yes thesis despite limited incremental size.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved trades, with entries averaging 58% against a 90% win rate.
- They hold about $9,000 in Yes shares and sold No at 12¢, consistent with continued confidence in a 2026 hike.
- Yes has risen 17% over the past week and is currently priced at 88¢.
$8,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes
A proven bettor with a 90% win rate is adding $8,000 to an existing Yes position despite the market already pricing an 88% chance.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved trades, with entries averaging 58% against a 90% win rate.
- They added $8,000 to an existing Yes position at 89¢ and also exited No exposure.
- The market has recently risen 17% over a week, supporting the bettor’s bullish direction, though resolution is still nearly a year away.
$9,168 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor reinforces Yes
A bettor with a 90% win rate and substantial existing Yes exposure is closing a No position, reinforcing the already-rising Yes thesis despite limited incremental size.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved trades, with entries averaging 58% against a 90% win rate.
- They hold about $9,000 in Yes shares and sold No at 12¢, consistent with continued confidence in a 2026 hike.
- Yes has risen 17% over the past week and is currently priced at 88¢.
$1,168 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial high-volume bettor adds to Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with 6,631 resolved bets and a 73% win rate is adding $35,500 to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 72%.
- This bettor has won 73% of 6,631 resolved trades and is up $27,512 lifetime.
- They added $35,500 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in this market above $87,000.
- The trade is in a liquid market at 71¢, with a 1¢ spread and odds up 15% over the past week.
$35,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven sharp buying No
A highly experienced and profitable trader with a 78% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh No position at near-market price.
- This bettor has won 78% of 1,012 resolved trades and is up $530,378 lifetime.
- The trader’s results beat their average winning entry price by 21%, indicating a meaningful historical edge.
- They bought No at 46¢ in a liquid market, positioning against a 2026 Fed rate hike.
$1,075 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven sharp buying No
A highly experienced and profitable trader with a 78% win rate and substantial edge is taking a fresh No position at near-market price.
- This bettor has won 78% of 1,012 resolved trades and is up $530,378 lifetime.
- The trader’s results beat their average winning entry price by 21%, indicating a meaningful historical edge.
- They bought No at 46¢ in a liquid market, positioning against a 2026 Fed rate hike.
$1,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,457 resolved positions and is up $764,402.
- Their average winning entry is 43%, yet they are buying Yes at 64%, signaling strong conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 48 events and 58 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record.
$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial macro bettor winning 76%
A proven serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Fed market after strong recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime across 157 results.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 92 events and $218K in tracked volume.
- Bought Yes at 65¢ after a 24.5-point one-day move, backing continued momentum toward a 2026 Fed hike.
$4,192 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven sharp bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $1,000 purchase of Yes.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,457 resolved positions and is up $764,402.
- Their average winning entry is 43%, yet they are buying Yes at 64%, signaling strong conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 48 events and 58 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record.
$2,975 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xd87a...d3b8 — No, $259,452
- 0x2c4c...cb39 — No, $142,150 (62% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — No, $135,101 (71% win rate)
- 0x71ed...d338 — No, $80,087 (81% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — No, $77,064 (52% win rate)
- 0x30e4...5102 — No, $38,974 (53% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $30,838 (44% win rate)
- 0x022e...f9f5 — No, $25,159
- 0xc5a1...6877 — No, $21,571 (62% win rate)
- 0xecb1...5da3 — No, $20,637 (50% win rate)
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