Smart Money SignalScore: 3.0
82% winner buys No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite recent Yes-side momentum.
Total
$2,347
Trades
1
Win Rate
82%
Wallet P&L
+$39,121
Analysis
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $9.4k lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢, fading a market where Yes has risen 7.5 points this week.
- The market is liquid enough to enter, with a tight 1¢ spread and $33.9k available liquidity.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 74¢
Detected June 1, 2026 at 4:13 AM