Profitable serial trader fades rally

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position on a thin, wide-spread political market after a sharp Yes price run-up.
Total
$1,100
Trades
1
Win Rate
67%
Wallet P&L
+$79,184
Analysis
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,384 resolved bets and about $79k in lifetime profit.
- They are fading a big move after Yes rose about 22 percentage points this week.
- The market is fairly thin with an 8-point spread, so a $1.1k contrarian bet carries some conviction.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 23¢
Detected June 3, 2026 at 4:28 AM