92% winner buying NO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has won 11 of 12 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is buying No on a liquid long-term geopolitical market.
Total
$1,100
Trades
1
Win Rate
92%
Wallet P&L
+$327
Analysis
- This bettor has won 92% of resolved trades, going 11-for-12 with positive lifetime profit.
- They are backing No with $1.1K at 86¢, implying confidence that invasion risk is overpriced.
- The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s track record rather than order-book pressure.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 86¢
Detected June 3, 2026 at 5:51 AM