84% serial cross-market bettor
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate placed a $12k No bet in a relatively quiet political market.
Total
$12,038
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$50,400
Analysis
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $46.8k lifetime.
- They put $12k on No, more than 2x the market’s recent daily volume.
- They have traded across 114 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 86¢
Detected June 5, 2026 at 5:48 PM