Sharp AI bettor on thin market

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate made oversized bets across thin AI leaderboard markets, including a Google Yes position.
Total
$2,859
Trades
2
Win Rate
78%
Wallet P&L
+$23,932
Analysis
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $23.9k lifetime.
- The bet is huge for this market, totaling more than 10x its 24h volume.
- They are also positioning across related AI leaderboard markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 71¢
Detected June 6, 2026 at 7:24 AM