Profitable serial politics bettor
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record and +$58k lifetime is buying No on a quiet German politics market with size far above recent volume.
Total
$2,250
Trades
1
Win Rate
70%
Wallet P&L
-$14,297
Analysis
- This bettor has won 140 of 188 resolved bets and is up $58k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 35 events and nearly $196k in flagged volume.
- The $2.25k No buy was over 10x the market’s recent detected 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 80¢
Detected June 11, 2026 at 5:25 PM