Smart Money SignalScore: 4.0
Profitable trader fading spike
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
Total
$2,080
Trades
1
Win Rate
66%
Wallet P&L
+$111,228
Analysis
- This bettor has won 68% of 114 resolved bets and is up about $105k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 10¢ after Yes jumped about 66 percentage points in a day.
- The trade is about one-quarter of the market’s 24h volume, suggesting meaningful conviction in a quiet market.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 10¢
Detected June 18, 2026 at 8:59 AM