What is the FrontierMath 90% AI prediction market about?

This market predicts whether a state-of-the-art AI model will score 90% or higher on the FrontierMath Exam before the end of 2026.

When does the FrontierMath AI market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on results available by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What source determines whether the AI model reached 90%?

The primary resolution source is EpochAI. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome.

What does recent smart money activity show?

PolySpotter has tracked $2,222 in smart money and one signal, with recent alert headlines indicating profitable traders fading Yes-side price spikes.

Where can I track FrontierMath AI Polymarket odds?

You can follow this market on PolySpotter to monitor Polymarket odds, smart money signals, and trader activity around whether AI reaches 90% on FrontierMath before 2027.

Part of: AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether a state-of-the-art AI model will achieve at least 90% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on EpochAI information, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $2,222 in smart money activity, including recent signals from profitable traders fading Yes-side spikes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,906.

Categories: AI, Big Tech, Business, Tech

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet fading Yes

A profitable repeat new wallet is taking a contrarian No position on a thin, wide-spread AI benchmark market that has already been drifting down.

This newer bettor has won 6 of 7 resolved bets and is up $3.4k so far.
Selling Yes at 81¢ is equivalent to buying No at 19¢, a contrarian bet against the market’s 83% Yes price.
The market is fairly thin with only about $3.4k liquidity, so a $2.2k trade shows meaningful conviction.

$2,222 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%