Proven 80% winner
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a major geopolitical market.
Total
$4,000
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$7,666
Analysis
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $2.2k lifetime.
- Their past wins came at average 57¢ odds, suggesting they have beaten market expectations.
- They bought No at 85¢, backing the view that China does not invade Taiwan by end-2027.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 85¢
Detected June 19, 2026 at 3:52 PM