93% winner backs No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A proven high-win-rate wallet placed a $3k No bet on a very quiet political market, far exceeding recent daily volume.
Total
$3,000
Trades
1
Win Rate
94%
Wallet P&L
+$32,853
Analysis
- This bettor has won 93% of 227 resolved trades and is up $27.5k lifetime.
- The $3k bet was about 16x this market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 84¢ implies they see Merz staying Chancellor through 2026 as underpriced.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 84¢
Detected June 20, 2026 at 7:10 AM